Lateas
FinancialsResolves Dec 31, 2026

US recession called in 2026?

NBER designation, calendar year

"Yes" price

25.3¢

24h change

+2.4%

24h volume

$277.7K

Cross-venue spread

0.4¢

Cross-venue linkage

2 venues linked
VenueBidAskLast24h Vol
Polymarket24.4¢25.9¢25.2¢$176.2K
Kalshi25.0¢26.2¢25.6¢$101.5K

Same outcome priced richest on Kalshi (25.6¢), cheapest on Polymarket (25.2¢). That is a 0.4¢ cross-venue spread.

Price

Polymarket · last 24h

Volume

hourly, USD

Order book depth

Polymarket · cumulative

Order book

Polymarket
PriceSizeTotal
33.4¢15.3K70.7K
32.2¢11.5K55.4K
31.2¢8.4K43.9K
30.5¢12.6K35.5K
29.4¢3.5K22.8K
28.3¢9.0K19.3K
27.3¢8.7K10.3K
26.5¢1.6K1.6K
25.3¢Spread 2.4¢
24.1¢5.1K5.1K
23.0¢6.7K11.8K
22.2¢12.5K24.3K
21.1¢7.6K31.9K
19.9¢11.4K43.3K
19.1¢16.2K59.5K
17.9¢11.9K71.4K
17.0¢13.9K85.3K

Recent trades

Polymarket
PriceSizeTime
25.5¢1.7K2m ago
24.5¢68810m ago
25.5¢92412m ago
24.5¢1.8K13m ago
25.1¢1.3K15m ago
25.8¢1.2K18m ago
24.2¢2.7K22m ago
24.5¢1.3K24m ago
24.4¢3.1K32m ago
25.8¢2.4K36m ago
25.7¢9742m ago
24.4¢21747m ago
25.4¢1.2K55m ago
24.2¢1.8K56m ago
25.3¢1.2K58m ago
26.1¢941h ago
26.1¢6931h ago
25.4¢1.8K1h ago
24.6¢1.5K1h ago
25.0¢9201h ago
26.1¢2.0K1h ago
24.9¢1.7K1h ago